Close to a period, the world economy overall stability, economy developed countries generally improved.The U.S. economic recovery is relatively stable, a, second quarter gross domestic product discount rate increased by 1.1% and 1.1% respectively;Prices rebounded quickly, in July the s&p/case – shiller house price index rose 12.4%;Steadily improve the job market, the rate of 7.2% in September, back to the end of 2008.Out of recession in the eurozone, second quarter gross domestic product growth of 0.3%, to achieve positive growth for the first time since the six quarters;Financial markets stabilize, Spanish, Italian 10-year bond yields have fallen to 4-5%, at safe levels.Japan’s massive quantitative easing received certain result, a, second quarter gross domestic product discount rate increased by 4.1% and 4.1% respectively;Deflation situation has eased, the August consumer price index is rose for three months.Improvements in the international market demand, global trade tend to be more active, since the third quarter of the Baltic dry index rose more than 60%.The world economy stabilises, as the fourth quarter of China’s import and export development created the relative stability of the external environment.
China’s economy has, stability to the good development momentum.In the first half of gross domestic product growth of 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 7.6%.From the supply side, the condition of agricultural production is good, autumn grain is expected to be back to harvest;Industrial production are 8, industrial added value growth has rebounded to more than 10% in September.From the demand side, maintain rapid growth, investment in the first three quarters of the fixed asset investment growth 20.2%, grow faster than in the first half of the 0.1%;Smooth consumption growth, in the first three quarters of total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 12.9%, 0.2% faster than the first half.Market prices basically stable, in the first three quarters of consumer prices rose 2.5%, increase than expanded 0.1% in the first half of the year.In July, China introduced a policy measures to promote the steady growth, structural adjustment of import and export, easing the burden on the import and export enterprises, enhancing the business confidence.Next, the policy effects will also further revealed.
However, in the fourth quarter of China’s foreign trade development especially exports also faces some disadvantages.Emerging market countries economic growth is slowing, financial risks rise, lead to obvious Chinese exports to its slowdown.In September, China’s exports to South Africa, India, Brazil, once upon a time the growth of 8 months to fell by 12.6%, 9.8% and 12.6% respectively.Given the current economic trends, emerging markets demand is likely to continue to slide, still a risk is higher, affect China’s export next.In addition, an increase of 9.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012 China’s exports, growth is 2% higher than in the first three quarters, formed a high base, will also to a certain extent, affect the export growth in the fourth quarter of this year.